Tuesday Morning Notes, 9/7/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The employment report ended any hopes that the Fed would announce tapering at the September meeting but does not
Monday Morning Notes, 8/30/21 This week’s Monday Morning Notes focuses on a Jackson Hole recap. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech confirmed that the Fed expects to begin
Monday Morning Notes, 8/23/21 I am narrowing the focus of this morning’s note to the main event of the week, Jackson Hole. Here is the state of play as we
Minutes Confirm Tapering Is Coming Tapering is on the way but most likely a formal tapering announcement won’t come at the September meeting. The Fed needs a bit more time
Media Reports Put September Tapering into Focus Monday morning, we saw two reports highlighting the possibility of a September tapering announcement. The articles had hawkish implications for tapering and rate
Monday Morning Notes, 8/16/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Still moving toward tapering on the back of an economy poised to meet the Fed’s criteria for a rate
Quick Inflation Notes Core-CPI continued to ease and came in at 0.3% for July, slightly under expectations of 0.4%. On an annualized basis, inflation is running at 4%: There are
The Taper is Old News, Covid, Inflation, JOLTS For many months now we have been handicapping the odds of tapering this year, will it come toward the beginning or the
Waller, Bullard, Bowman, Chair Decision, Yields We are getting a lot of little bites from Fed speakers ahead of the bigger meal we expect from Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard
Monday Morning Notes, 8/9/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The labor market data is clearing a path to tapering but a formal tapering announcement will likely wait until
Clarida Consistent With SEP Rate Hike Predictions Today, Federal Reserve Vice Chair Richard Clarida, a key Fed official viewed as a bellwether of the FOMC, revealed that his outlook is
Monday Morning Notes, 8/2/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed hawks have yet to find sufficient support for an early tapering argument to counter the dovish consensus that
Fed Takes Another Step Toward Tapering The FOMC meeting concluded with another step toward tapering but as expected Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell was vague on details. The lack of
Monday Morning Notes, 7/26/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Federal Reserve will begin the tapering conversation in earnest this week but don’t expect any details as it
Quick Notes, 7/19/21 A few quick notes on incoming news and events: Homebuilding confidence edges down. Homebuilder confidence edged down in July: The associated commentary is important: “Builders are contending
The Politics of Inflation Note: I am foregoing the regular Monday format this week in lieu of a focus on the Fed section. It’s a light data week ahead (the
Quick Notes on Powell As anticipated, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell leaned into a dovish story in today’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. The major takeaway is that
Monday Morning Notes, 7/12/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Incoming data is expected to show that inflation remains elevated yet still easing down from the rapid pace of
Williams, Barkin Talk Tapering Fed officials continue to debate the timing and composition of tapering. The diversity of opinions suggests that it may be difficult to reach a consensus to
Inflation Surprises on the Upside Again Inflation surprised on the upside again, driven in part by another large gain in used car prices. There will continue to be a concerted
