Random Thoughts While Waiting for the Employment Report A few items while we wait for the employment report. First, the White House is dragging its heels on Fed personnel decisions

Chair Nomination Battle Intensifies The slow process of the Fed chair nominations will only lead to growing speculation that current chair Jerome Powell is losing ground in a horse race

Monday Morning Notes, 10/4/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Over the next six months, the Fed will be developing the narrative that provides the post-tapering guidance. A key

Fed Presidents Resign, Brainard Speech, Energy Prices Federal Reserve Presidents Eric Rosengren and Robert Kaplan resigned Monday in the wake of an ethics controversy regarding their trading activity during the

Monday Morning Notes, 9/27/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed almost pre-announced it will start tapering asset purchases at the November FOMC meeting. The Fed’s use of inflation

Fed Sets Stage for November Taper The FOMC meeting ended largely as we anticipated with the Fed setting the stage for tapering at the next meeting while revealing a more

Final Thoughts Heading into Fed Day We are heading into Fed day with market participants expecting the FOMC will pass on tapering but instead send a strong signal that the

In the interest of efficiency and time I thought we might share a few brief highlights of key market related points in (and not in) our reports while addressing some

Monday Morning Notes, 9/20/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning No tapering at this week’s FOMC meeting but look for signals that point us toward November. I expect the

Upward Drift in the Dots In a note earlier this week I provided my expectations for the policy outcomes from next week’s FOMC meeting (see Tim Duy’s Fed Watch 09/13/21).

Monday Morning Notes, 9/13/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Next week the Fed will set the stage for tapering later this year, likely at the November meeting. In

Inflation Expectations Continue to March Higher The New York Fed measures of inflation expectations rose to series highs again in August, both at the near- and longer-term horizons: This creates

Williams, JOLTS, Beige Book Tapering is still on the table for this year. That’s the takeaway from New York Fed President John Williams. In Tuesday’s Fed Watch note, I said

Tuesday Morning Notes, 9/7/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The employment report ended any hopes that the Fed would announce tapering at the September meeting but does not

Monday Morning Notes, 8/30/21 This week’s Monday Morning Notes focuses on a Jackson Hole recap. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech confirmed that the Fed expects to begin

Monday Morning Notes, 8/23/21 I am narrowing the focus of this morning’s note to the main event of the week, Jackson Hole. Here is the state of play as we

Minutes Confirm Tapering Is Coming Tapering is on the way but most likely a formal tapering announcement won’t come at the September meeting. The Fed needs a bit more time

Media Reports Put September Tapering into Focus Monday morning, we saw two reports highlighting the possibility of a September tapering announcement. The articles had hawkish implications for tapering and rate

Monday Morning Notes, 8/16/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Still moving toward tapering on the back of an economy poised to meet the Fed’s criteria for a rate

Quick Inflation Notes Core-CPI continued to ease and came in at 0.3% for July, slightly under expectations of 0.4%. On an annualized basis, inflation is running at 4%: There are