Monday Morning Notes, 10/25/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The outcome of the upcoming FOMC meeting has been very well telegraphed by Fed speakers including Federal Reserve Chair

Getting Nervous, But Still Committed to Transitory Federal Reserve Board speakers have coalesced around common themes over the past two weeks. In general, they support tapering at the upcoming November

If Demand Is the Issue, The Fed Is on The Wrong Side of The Bet The Fed attributes the current inflationary pressures to supply side constraints driven by sectoral imbalances

Monday Morning Notes, 10/18/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Data is generally cutting in the direction of Fed hawks, but the FOMC still keeps the throttle wide open

CPI, Fed Minutes September core-CPI printed at 0.2% for the month, although at 0.24% it was just a hair away from being rounded up to 0.3%. Annualized core inflation ran

Clarida, Bostic, Inflation Expectations, and JOLTS Mixed opinions today from Fed speakers on the inflationary challenges suggests a low bar to a further expansion in the rift between Fed presidents

When Will the Fed Cut Loose from Its Anchors? Note: I am foregoing the usual Monday morning format in favor of some “big picture” thinking in the wake of the

Random Thoughts While Waiting for the Employment Report A few items while we wait for the employment report. First, the White House is dragging its heels on Fed personnel decisions

Chair Nomination Battle Intensifies The slow process of the Fed chair nominations will only lead to growing speculation that current chair Jerome Powell is losing ground in a horse race

Monday Morning Notes, 10/4/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Over the next six months, the Fed will be developing the narrative that provides the post-tapering guidance. A key

Fed Presidents Resign, Brainard Speech, Energy Prices Federal Reserve Presidents Eric Rosengren and Robert Kaplan resigned Monday in the wake of an ethics controversy regarding their trading activity during the

Monday Morning Notes, 9/27/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed almost pre-announced it will start tapering asset purchases at the November FOMC meeting. The Fed’s use of inflation

Fed Sets Stage for November Taper The FOMC meeting ended largely as we anticipated with the Fed setting the stage for tapering at the next meeting while revealing a more

Final Thoughts Heading into Fed Day We are heading into Fed day with market participants expecting the FOMC will pass on tapering but instead send a strong signal that the

In the interest of efficiency and time I thought we might share a few brief highlights of key market related points in (and not in) our reports while addressing some

Monday Morning Notes, 9/20/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning No tapering at this week’s FOMC meeting but look for signals that point us toward November. I expect the

Upward Drift in the Dots In a note earlier this week I provided my expectations for the policy outcomes from next week’s FOMC meeting (see Tim Duy’s Fed Watch 09/13/21).

Monday Morning Notes, 9/13/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Next week the Fed will set the stage for tapering later this year, likely at the November meeting. In

Inflation Expectations Continue to March Higher The New York Fed measures of inflation expectations rose to series highs again in August, both at the near- and longer-term horizons: This creates

Williams, JOLTS, Beige Book Tapering is still on the table for this year. That’s the takeaway from New York Fed President John Williams. In Tuesday’s Fed Watch note, I said