Talking About Talking About Tapering And so it begins. The FOMC minutes revealed that participants had not yet begun talking about tapering. Still, they made a big leap in that

The Importance of Challenging the Narrative For a second week I am breaking with the usual framework Monday morning notes. This morning I think it is more important to focus

Waller Lays Down Some Markers While Bullard Challenges the Conventional Wisdom As expected, Fed officials have yet to waver in the face of rising inflation pressures including this week’s blowout

For the Fed, Everything Remains Transitory Firmly fixated on the goal of full employment, the Fed remains committed to its “credibly irresponsible” policy approach. Unless the supply side crunch eases

Employment Report Post-Mortem In lieu of the usual Monday morning notes, today’s content is a more focused look at the implications of the disappointing April employment report. The April employment

Fed Presidents Fall in Line With Powell Fed speakers continue to emphasize the party line: Optimism on the economic outlook while recognizing that the road to recovery remains long, continued

The Markets Wants to Talk Inflation. The Fed Wants to Talk Jobs Inflation remains at the top of the news cycle. The New York Times reports on the commodity price

Yellen Stirs the Pot U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen created a bit of a stir in markets with these comments: “It may be that interest rates will have to rise

Monday Morning Notes, 5/3/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed remains locked into its “credibly irresponsible” policy stance as the economy struggles with what seems likely to

Doves Still Rule The Roost As anticipated, the FOMC took no action at the end of this month’s FOMC meeting. In the subsequent press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Still Waiting for a Change in The Inflation Story Inflation is going to be the talk of the town over the next few months as the base effects and reopening

Tim Duy’s Fed Watch, 4/26/21 Monday Morning Notes, 4/26/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The economy heated up during the first quarter but the Fed will remain on

Labor Markets Tighter Than Fed Thinks The labor market is heating up fast and we should be cautious that the labor market recovery challenges the Fed’s baseline expectation of a

Monday Morning Notes, 4/19/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The economy heated up in March as expected. Still, the Fed isn’t going to count its chickens before they

Quick Note on Vaccinations and Tapering On Monday, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said that it was too early to assess the stance of monetary policy. It wouldn’t

Monday Morning Notes, 4/12/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Expect a seemingly never-ending stream of concern about supply constraints and inflation as the economy reopens but the Fed

How Many Is A “String”? In his Thursday appearance at the IMF Spring Meetings, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said this with regards to the March employment “We want to

Tight Labor Markets Ahead The February JOLTS report revealed a better than anticipated rise in job openings to 7.4 million, up from 7.1 million in January: Openings are fairly high

Monday Morning Notes, 3/29/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The dominant message from the Fed is that rates will remain near zero for a long time and accommodative

Thinking About The Employment Report We are gearing up for Friday’s employment report. Wall Street currently expects nonfarm payrolls grew by 650k, the first of what is anticipated to be