Dissension in the Ranks The FOMC minutes revealed that the Fed continues to travel down the tapering road but there is a wide and growing gulf between FOMC participants about

Tuesday Morning Notes, 7/6/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The June jobs report doesn’t change policy expectations. The economy remains sufficiently far from full employment that rate hikes

Ahead of the June Employment Report I feel like anyone giving predictions about Friday’s employment report is pretty much just walking on thin ice. Even in the best of times forecasting

Waller Favors Tapering MBS First The momentum for tapering asset purchases is clearly building. Yesterday in a Bloomberg interview, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller noted that the economy has done better than

Inflation Thoughts Inflation continues to be a hot topic as policymakers and market participants navigate the uncharted waters of the U.S. economic reopening. I will be talking inflation on Wednesday

Monday Morning Notes, 6/28/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The tapering train is rolling forward and it is all about how quickly the Fed can form a consensus

Fed’s New Framework Still Holds I am traveling this weekend and had intended to postpone my usual Monday note, but the Fed’s hawkish turn last week raised several questions about

The Fed Takes a Hawkish Turn The Fed has a familiar pattern. In the face of data and events that are inconsistent with its expectations, it tends to shift into

Bits and Pieces to Chew on While Waiting for the Fed Some things I am thinking about while waiting for the Fed: 1.) Split expectations on the dots. Bloomberg reports

FOMC Preview I covered incoming data last week (for the CPI and JOLTS reports, see Tim Duy’s Fed Watch 6/10/21 and 6/8/21, respectively) and am foregoing the usual Monday morning

Inflation With Another Upside Surprise CPI inflation came in hot in May with headline and core climbing 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. At this point, there is no indication that the

JOLTS Surprises on the Upside The JOLTS report revealed the intensity of the frictions facing the U.S. labor market. The Fed has been downplaying these frictions on the assumption they

Monday Morning Notes, 6/7/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The tapering train will continue to roll forward as a hot economy combines with elevated inflation to push the

Ahead of the Employment Report ADP surprised on the upside with a 978k gain relative to expectations of 650k, suggesting that hiring is stronger than indicated by the April jobs

Quick Note on the Beige Book The Fed released its June Beige Book, the regular pre-meeting compendium of anecdotal evidence. The report, prepared by the Cleveland Fed, was largely upbeat

Supply Constraints in Manufacturing, Brainard With Another Subtle Shift The Markit and ISM manufacturing reports for May tell a similar story: The manufacturing sector is running red hot with steady

Monday Morning Notes, 6/1/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Though still at the earliest phase, the Fed is undeniably moving forward with the tapering discussion. The Fed has

Quick Note on Quarles Federal Reserve Vice Chair Randal Quarles moved the tapering discussion another notch forward in Wednesday’s speech. This small shift follows other subtle remarks from Fed officials

The Taper Train Continues Fed speakers continue to rehash familiar themes while edging closer to the tapering conversation. The Fed’s objective is to lead us into tapering without creating any

Monday Morning Notes, 5/24/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Talking about when to talk about tapering is now on the table, the first step in the Fed’s promised