Fed Looking Forward to the Last Hike Today’s FOMC meeting and subsequent press conference concluded as we expected, with a 25bp rate increase and an expressed willingness to hike again

Monday Morning Notes, 7/24/23 The Fed will raise interest rates 25bp at this week’s FOMC meeting. The outcome of this meeting was effectively determined at the June meeting, something the

Growth Narrative Gets a Little Lift Quick note on the stickiness of yields so far this week as the growth narrative gets a lift. Today we got the latest unemployment

Monday Morning Notes, 7/17/23 Market participants are caught in the grips of a Goldilocks narrative as recession fears are once again pushed into the future while inflation suddenly looks vanquished.

CPI Surprises on the Soft Side June CPI inflation came in well below expectations with core growing at a 1.9% annualized rate: Excluding used autos and shelter, the pace of

Monday Morning Notes, 7/10/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning With a July rate hike already priced in, the focus of market participants will be on what happens next.

Data Dump Deals a Death Blow to the Imminent Recession Hypothesis The recession will have to wait. The ADP report came in red hot at 497k compared to expectations of

FOMC Minutes Leave the Policy Outlook Unchanged The minutes of the June FOMC meeting were thin, thin gruel that added little to our policy outlook. The underlying tone of the

Monday Morning Notes, 7/3/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We have been pushing clients to be aware that market pricing is vulnerable to stronger than expected data. That

Monday Morning Notes, 6/26/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We anticipate the Fed will raise rates again at the July FOMC meeting and think it likely that either

Tuesday Morning Notes, 6/20/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Don’t dismiss the dots. Neither the economy nor inflation are slowing quickly enough to keep the Fed from further

More of a Skip Than a Pause The FOMC passed on the opportunity to raise rates today, as expected, and issued a hawkish set of projections with a terminal rate

CPI Report Supports Fed Skip The CPI report doesn’t have enough juice to keep the Fed from holding policy rates steady when it’s two-day FOMC meeting concludes tomorrow. It’s sufficient,

Monday Monday Morning Notes, 6/12/23 The Federal Reserve is poised to hold policy rates steady this week and bill the move as a “skip not a pause.” The Fed “troika”

Monday Morning Notes, 6/5/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Having successfully reined in market odds of a rate hike, Fed leadership has positioned itself to take a pass

Jefferson Raises the Bar for a Rate Hike Incoming Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson delivered a clear message in favor of skipping the June meeting in his Wednesday remarks. As a

Tuesday Morning Notes, 5/30/23 A divided Fed is sleepwalking into another rate hike at the June FOMC meeting. Fed leadership has directed us to expect the FOMC will stand pat at

Threading the Needle Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller threaded the needle exactly as I suspected by revealing that while he prefers to hike, he could support a skip, but not

Monday Morning Notes, 5/22/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell greenlit a pause at the June FOMC meeting. In theory, the hawks could still

A Divided Fed At the March FOMC meeting, seven of the participants believed that policy rates would need to rise above the median projected terminal rate of 5.125%. Those seven