A Defiant Powell Holds Rates Steady The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at this week’s FOMC meeting. As expected, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Chris Waller

Monday Morning Notes, 7/28/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Despite enormous pressure from the White House, the Fed will not cut policy rates at the end of this

Monday Morning Notes, 7/21/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed faces an increasingly challenging environment as it approaches upcoming policy decisions. It won’t cut rates at the

Note: Tim Duy is on vacation this week. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell testified that the Fed did not yet expect substantial tariff-induced inflation to be visible in the data.

Monday Morning Notes, 7/9/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We think the Fed is eyeing a rate cut in September, but we assess the odds of that outcome

A Shifting Balance of Risks We see signs that inflation may be softer than the Fed anticipates while the labor market is more vulnerable to downside risks. Tomorrow’s June employment report may

Monday Morning Notes, 6/30/25 This is a shortened note for a holiday-shortened trading week.  After pushing back on rate cuts all year, we said we couldn’t maintain that strategy with

Powell Holds His Ground Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell reiterated his message from last week’s FOMC press conference in today’s Humphrey Hawkins testimony. The Fed is on hold this summer and will

MAGA Takeover at The Fed Federal Reserve Vice-Chair of Supervision Michelle Bowman and Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller have aligned politically with President Donald Trump to support a July rate