The Shutdown Begins The Federal Reserve restarted rate cuts in September and projected 75bp of easing this year in that month’s SEP. We expect the Fed follows through on the

Monday Morning Notes, 9/29/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning It’s “wait and see” time for market participants. We think the Fed, or most importantly, the Board, has largely made

Monday Morning Notes, 9/22/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning A divided Fed cut interest rates last week and signaled another two cuts for the remainder of 2025. We

On Track for Two More Rate Cuts This Year A divided Fed cut policy rates 25bps as expected and signaled more will come this year. Although a wide swath of

Monday Morning Notes, 9/15/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will cut interest rates 25bps this week and signal at least one more rate cut for 2025.

Job Growth, ADP, and the Benchmark Revisions The slowdown in job growth has market participants and the Federal Reserve focused on downside labor market risks. With much of the topline US

Upcoming BLS Benchmark Revision Federal Reserve officials are increasingly embracing the view that downside risks to the labor market are building, reinforcing the case for interest rate cuts to stabilize

Monday Morning Notes, 9/8/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Growing downside risks to the labor market as highlighted in the August employment report will likely trigger a series

Tuesday Morning Notes, 9/2/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Federal Reserve is set to deliver a 25bp rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. By putting his

Slower Immigration Lowers Breakeven Job Growth Summary Federal Reserve and Breakevens Federal Reserve officials have cautioned that due to slowing immigration the recent softness in nonfarm payrolls should be taken

Monday Morning Notes, 8/25/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning At last week’s Jackson Hole conference Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave the green light for a rate cut