Jefferson Raises the Bar for a Rate Hike Incoming Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson delivered a clear message in favor of skipping the June meeting in his Wednesday remarks. As a

Tuesday Morning Notes, 5/30/23 A divided Fed is sleepwalking into another rate hike at the June FOMC meeting. Fed leadership has directed us to expect the FOMC will stand pat at

Threading the Needle Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller threaded the needle exactly as I suspected by revealing that while he prefers to hike, he could support a skip, but not

Monday Morning Notes, 5/22/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell greenlit a pause at the June FOMC meeting. In theory, the hawks could still

A Divided Fed At the March FOMC meeting, seven of the participants believed that policy rates would need to rise above the median projected terminal rate of 5.125%. Those seven

Challenging Fedspeak We are getting a lot of questions about hawkish sounding comments from Fed officials in recent days. With that in mind, I want to think about the state

Monday Morning Notes, 5/15/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will likely hold rates steady at the June meeting as it weighs the impact of banking stress

April CPI, Williams Speech On the surface, the April CPI report did not appear amenable to a pause at the June FOMC meeting. Core inflation grew at a slightly faster

Monday Morning Notes, 5/8/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Although the outcome of the June Fed meeting is technically still data dependent, banking stress and a potential debt

Fed Intends to Remain Resolute The Fed does not intend to cut rates. I think my post-FOMC note accurately describes the inflation-focused intentions of the Fed in the context of

Takeaways from the FOMC Meeting The Fed hiked rates 25bp today and opened the door for a pause at the June FOMC meeting. Still, as we expected, the Fed did

Monday Morning Notes, 5/1/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will push policy rates up another notch this week to 5.125%. Although the Fed will likely keep

First Republic, Retail Sales Barring an eruption of uncontrollable deposit flight from the banking sector, the Fed will likely press forward with another rate hike even if First Republic Bank

Monday Morning Notes, 4/24/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is on track for another rate hike, and although it is much closer to the end of

Monday Morning Notes, 4/17/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Solid incoming data for both jobs and inflation combined with evaporating concerns about an imminent credit crunch keep the

Quick Notes Heading into Friday Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller is on the calendar tomorrow. Waller is also on the calendar for next week ahead of the blackout period, but

CPI, Minutes, Fedspeak Incoming information points to another rate hike at the May meeting while the case builds for a pause at the June meeting, data dependent of course. Headline

Monday Morning Notes, 4/10/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Employment growth slowed in March yet still maintained a solid pace that keeps the Fed on track for another

JOLTs Data Cuts in a Dovish Direction It’s a long time until the May FOMC meeting, but incoming data this week, particularly today’s JOLTs report, has so far surprised on

Monday Morning Notes, 4/3/23 The outcome of the May meeting is still up in the air as the Fed balances the data flow against the potential for a deeper credit