Monday Morning Notes, 11/18/24 I am back from vacation and catching up on last week’s slew of Fedspeak. We focus this week’s note on that Fedspeak given the waning confidence
Powell Sets Up For a Pause The Fed cut policy rates 25bp as expected today. Westand by our guidance from yesterday: Another 25bp cut in December is likely but not
Tuesday Morning Notes, 11/12/24 A quick note for this week before I head off on vacation. The Fed’s near-term focus remains on the data while market participants continue to digest
Market participants have reacted more quickly than the Fed to the threat of tariffs. A look back at 2018 reveals that the Fed’s research on tariffs evolved over time and
Monday Morning Notes, 11/4/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The election takes center stage this week with polls showing Trump and Harris in a neck-to-neck race for the US
Data Update Ahead of the Employment Report Incoming data leave the Fed on track to continue cutting policy rates this year in November and December. Ongoing strong growth, however, would
The Fed views the labor market as no longer overheating and not a significant contributor to inflation. That leaves the Fed able to focus on protecting against further weakness in
Labor Market Still Cooling The JOLTS report revealed unexpected weakness in September job openings as well as downward revisions to August, although Hurricane Helene likely weighed on September openings. Further declines
Monday Morning Notes, 10/28/24 Trump trades continue to dominate financial market discussions and send yields higher, but attention may turn back to the data this week, at least temporarily, with
Update on the Near-Term Rate Path Market participants continue to run hard on the speculation of not only a Trump victory, but a Republican sweep across Congress, which in turn
Monday Morning Notes, 10/21/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning As far as the Fed is concerned, market participants are stuck in a holding pattern. Attention has shifted to
The renewed speculation in a Trump victory has sparked fresh concerns among market participants about the inflationary impacts that might result if he were to follow through on his campaign
A December Skip More Likely Than November We think Governor Chris Waller’s comments were consistent with the Fed likely stepping down to a 25bp rate cut in November. While he expects
Monday Morning Notes, 10/14/24 As we already discussed key data released last week, we have a shortened Monday Morning Note this week. The Fed is poised to cut rates 25bp
Fed Still On Track for November Cut Core CPI came in on the hot side, but we don’t think one print will change the Fed’s confidence that inflation is on
Monday Morning Notes, 10/7/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning As we warned last week, data doesn’t move in a straight line. Market pricing was vulnerable to data drawn
Final Thoughts Ahead of the Employment Report Wall Street anticipates a benign employment report for September with nonfarm payrolls up 150k and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. This
Long Versus Short Games Today’s JOLTS report is a reminder that the data does not always travel in a straight line. This is a space where we need to differentiate
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell noted the recent NIPA revisions removed a downside risk to the economy and suggests spending can continue at a healthy level in his Q&A at
