Monday Morning Notes, 6/16/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will signal steady rate policy through the summer at this week’s FOMC meeting. We anticipate the SEP
The June SEP Today’s CPI number notwithstanding, we anticipate the June SEP will broadly follow the same contours as the March SEP though with more pronounced supply side effects due to
Monday Morning Notes, 6/9/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The May employment report revealed a sufficiently resilient labor market to confirm the Federal Reserve’s belief that it has time
Ahead of the May Employment Report The May employment report released tomorrow could help cement the Fed’s expectation that it stays on the sidelines throughout the summer. The Fed views the
Monday Morning Notes, 6/2/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Federal Reserve’s baseline view is that tariffs, and broader policy changes on net, will have a stagflationary impact
Monday Morning Notes, 5/19/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed remains in a holding pattern. The economy remains sufficiently strong that the Fed confidently believes it can
While the market narrative is shifting to the potential size of the fiscal package working its way through Congress, still higher-than-anticipated tariffs will continue to work their way through the
Today, currency markets were whiplashed by two articles from the same newswire with completely contradictory implications. The first, datelined Seoul, said an Assistant US Treasury official and his South Korean counterpart
Monday Morning Notes, 5/12/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Policy remains in a holding pattern as the Fed manages risks to both sides of its mandate. We think
Steady as She Goes Today’s FOMC meeting ended exactly as we anticipated with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell effectively ending any residual hopes for a June rate cut. Barring a
Monday Morning Notes, 5/5/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning As the Federal Reserve heads into its May FOMC meeting this week the economic outlook remains mired in uncertainty.
Ahead of the April Employment Report The details of tomorrow’s employment report could in the Fed’s eye sharply reduce chances for a June rate cut. As we have laid out in previous reports,
Monday Morning Notes, 4/28/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning It’s blackout week for the Fed, leaving the market focus on data and trade policies. Timing the impact and
The Trump Administration looks to be making some course corrections on trade, the Fed, and DOGE. These will help take some tail risk out of the economy, although with trade
The Fed is wary about changing policy ahead of seeing both the impact of tariffs and the evolving fiscal outlook. It will likely not have a good picture of either
From a senior Chinese economic official, Sunday evening, Beijing time: [President Donald] Trump’s hope to reach a trade deal with China in three to four weeks is…absolutely impossible…President Xi will
Monday Morning Notes, 4/21/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed expects to remain on hold until it has a clearer sense of which side of the mandate,
Quickly on Powell Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave no hope that a Fed “put” to support markets will come anytime soon. Here is the key paragraph in Powell’s speech: Our
When Congress returns from their two-week recess at the end of the month, they will begin the hard process of crafting and passing a budget in addition to raising the debt
Dovish Waller Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller maintained his out-of-consensus position in today’s speech. Waller was prescient on the upside of the pandemic inflation and then again on his labor market
