Powell’s Test Given our position that Trump’s policy agenda is much more likely to trigger Fed rate cuts than rate hikes, we can hardly recommend that market participants attempt to
Monday Morning Notes, 3/3/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning This week will set the tone going into the Fed’s blackout period ahead of the March FOMC meeting. Fed
Last night Speaker of the US House of Representatives Mike Johnson (R-LA) defied media expectations, and with a strong assist from President Donald Trump squeaked his Budget Resolution through the
Fed Will Wait for Hard Data Another round of soft data, this time from the Conference Board, encouraged market participants to price in additional easing this year, including a 30%
Quick Data Note While we caution that regional Fed PMI surveys are soft data, the February Dallas Fed manufacturing PMI exemplifies the growing uncertainty to both sides of the distribution
The federal workforce is undergoing a significant transformation as Trump 2.0 implements buyouts and layoffs to reduce government headcount. While the immediate economic impact is muted, particularly from the Federal
Monday Morning Notes, 2/24/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning For the Fed, risks are growing to both sides of the distribution. On one side, Trump-driven uncertainty is beginning
Tuesday Morning Notes, 2/18/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning As we have expected since the beginning of the year, the Fed is positioning for an extended pause. FOMC
Quick Note on CPI There’s some risk to commenting on inflation ahead of the PPI numbers, but the January CPI release supports our view that the Fed will become more
My colleague Tim Duy and I just concluded a week in Washington DC where we had the opportunity to meet with a cross-section of policymakers, thinktanks, and friends, all of
Monday Morning Notes, 2/10/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed speakers have coalesced around a near-term hawkish narrative. With rates now down 100bp from their cycle peak, the
Circling the Wagons Very quickly this morning, we see the Fed as circling the wagons ahead of a hawkish repositioning in March. To be sure, the Fed’s ability to pull off
Monday Morning Notes, 2/3/25 Note: Shortened note as I am traveling today to join Sassan Ghahramani in Washington D.C., and although this is a jam-packed week for data that includes
Fed Remains on the Sidelines The January FOMC meeting ended as we anticipated with the Fed holding rates constant and Powell giving nothing to believe a March cut was on
The Federal Reserve views the labor market in balance and no longer a source of inflationary pressure, leaving it resistant to rate hikes even if inflation continues to modestly overshoot
Monday Morning Notes, 1/27/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at the end of this week’s FOMC meeting. We don’t think Fed
Summary The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released their latest demographic forecast, and budget and economic outlooks last week. The updated forecasts now serve as the baseline when scoring the economic
Tuesday Morning Notes, 1/21/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is on hold for the foreseeable future. With economic activity and job growth still resilient, the Fed
CPI Eases Inflation Concerns A soft CPI report spurred a rally in bonds and reignited bets on rate cuts this year. It doesn’t change our expectations that the Fed is
PPI Soft, But PCE Components Solid PPI inflation was softer than expected though market participants quickly noted that underlying components supported an increase in core-PCE estimates. We build upon that
