Another Step Toward Being Backed Into a Hike While the outcome of the September FOMC meeting still hinges on Friday’s CPI number, today’s PPI number may help Fed Chair Kevin

Tuesday Morning Notes, 9/8/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We do not expect the center of the FOMC to push for imminent rate hikes and instead expect them

Waller Pushes Back on a Rate Hike Fed Governor Chris Waller came out against a September rate hike barring a “hot” inflation print, which we interpret as August CPI and

Warsh and Inflation Breadth At Jackson Hole Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized underlying inflation, consistent with his overall focus on broader trends and not being data point dependent. Specifically, Warsh

Quick Updates on Fed Commentary First, US Treasury Secretary and Shadow Fed Chair Scott Bessent has spoken. Via the WSJ: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he is not going to speculate

Hawks Don’t Have the Momentum While the July PCE inflation came in slightly above expectations, we reiterate our view that the Fed will likely pass on a rate hike at

Fed Positioned to Pass on a September Hike The spot inflation data and anticipated revisions suggest the Fed will push off the possibility of rate hikes until the December FOMC

Monday Morning Notes, 8/24/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning All eyes are on the bond market and Jackson Hole this week. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent drew attention

Inflation Momentum Fades, but Regime Remains Elevated Rate hike probabilities for September have fallen alongside softer spot data. The two low inflation prints in particular take some of the sting

Accomodation Everywhere The most recent inflation data has arrested the hawkish drift of participants evident at the July FOMC meeting, at least for now. Although, or perhaps because, the Fed

Monday Morning Notes, 8/17/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning While Fed speakers increasingly see that inflation exceeding target for going on six years is becoming embedded above target,

Hawks Sidelined While we think underlying inflation remains in a range closer to 3% than 2%, the soft July inflation data has likely sidelined Fed hawks and contributed to the

Gray Zone While market participants will need to wait for tomorrow’s PPI report for a more complete picture of inflation, today’s CPI report suggests that inflation remains stuck in the

Monday Morning Notes, 8/10/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The July employment report is broadly consistent with a low breakeven rate labor market operating near full employment. While

Inflation, Supply Shocks and Accelerated Pass-Through Our view remains that the US economy has settled into an above-target inflation regime. It is possible that the Fed’s long-held, bottom-up view of inflation

Monday Morning Notes, 8/3/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference has sparked a conversation about the Fed’s ability to maintain credibility, but we

All Hat, No Cattle In a 9-3 decision, the FOMC marked the occasion of the 63rd month (and counting) of above-target inflation by holding rates steady. Our lean on regime change came

Monday Morning Notes, 7/26/26 The Fed has been moving toward a rate hike all year. In our view, it’s been inevitable, it’s only an issue of timing. Inflation is too high

Monday Morning Notes, 7/20/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We have a shorter note this morning given that the die appears to be cast for the upcoming FOMC

Ahead of the Weekend: July is Dead This week’s inflation data put an end to the debate over July and shifted the discussion to the question of a September rate