Economy Looks Softer than GDP Indicates Today’s data releases point to a labor market that continues to cool while consumer demand ended the year on a weak note. Combined with last
Monday Morning Notes, 2/9/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Market participants remain stuck in a space where it’s difficult to have conviction on anything other than the broad
Fed Research Anticipates the New Chair We see a recent trend in Fed research explaining balance sheet issues. Perhaps this is just a coincidence as two of the notes predate
Monday Morning Notes, 2/2/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning President Donald Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Chair of the Fed. We
Fed Moves to the Sideline Faced with a backdrop of solid economic growth, apparent stabilization in the labor market, and still elevated inflation, the Fed held rates steady today as
Note on the Dollar and Confidence President Donald Trump added momentum to the decline of the dollar. The dollar had already been breaking lower again today even before Trump said he
On Fed Personnel Trump may announce his new Fed Chair choice as early as this week. Stephen Miran’s term as Fed Governor ends this week, which makes this a natural time
“Soft intervention” on the part of the US to strengthen the Japanese yen has sparked a fresh round of dollar weakness. If that weakness gains speed, the “debasement trade” narrative will
Monday Morning Notes, 1/26/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this week. The December SEP revealed that FOMC participants remain biased in
Labor Market Update, January 2026 The Federal Reserve continues to expect labor market stabilization in the near term, supported by solid economic growth, the lagged effects of last year’s rate
Small Bites on the Race for the Fed Chair A couple of small points on the never-ending race to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell. First, President Trump alluded to the
Monday Morning Notes, 1/20/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Once again, market participants face navigating a Trump-induced international crisis. President Donald Trump threatened 10% tariffs on a subset
The Cartoon Fed Scenario The Federal Reserve and its Chair Jerome Powell remain under immense political pressure. President Donald Trump has renewed personal attacks and calls for rate cuts, the
Monday Morning Notes, 1/12/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The labor market continues to cool, but not break, as the curious equilibrium of weak job growth but low
Productivity and the Jobless Expansion The Federal Reserve is struggling to reconcile two views of the US economy. From a top-down perspective growth remains solid and consumer spending resilient, suggesting
Monday Morning Notes, 1/5/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning With policy rates now within the upper end of estimates of neutral, the Fed looks set to hold rates
Monday Morning Notes, 12/22/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning With the December rate cut, the Fed has positioned itself to move to the sidelines and wait for additional
Quick Data Update The combined employment data for October and November indicate that the labor market continues to hold steady in the slow hire/low fire equilibrium. There isn’t anything here
Monday Morning Notes, 12/15/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed hawks and doves have reached an uneasy détente after a divisive series of meetings in the final months
