Monday Morning Notes, 12/11/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning In the beginning of November we took an aggressive position is establishing a baseline scenario that the Fed would
Wait For It Eventually the reality of disinflation will come crashing down on the Fed. It’s just a matter of whether that happens before persistently tight monetary policy sets in
Monday Morning Notes, 11/27/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Although the Fed continues to hold out the risk of another rate hike, almost certainly the last hike for
Fed Minutes Offer Little New Guidance The minutes of the November FOMC minutes offered little in the way of any new insights into the policy path. While FOMC participants still
Monday Morning Notes, 11/20/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The market has started pricing in rate cuts beginning next March well ahead of any Fed movement toward easier
Monday Morning Notes, 11/13/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is not ready to declare that the rate hike cycle ended in July, but when that happens,
A Quick Note on Financial Conditions and Inflation With the 10-year treasury yield now back down from its highs of 5% to almost the level of the September FOMC meeting there has
Questions and Answers My Monday Morning Note prompted a flurry of client questions. Some of the prominent questions (paraphrased) and my responses: Will the Fed start talking about rate cuts
Monday Morning Notes, 11/6/23 With it increasingly clear that the Fed reached the peak of this cycle back in July, we can begin wargaming the first rate cut of the
Extended Pause Underway The Fed held rates steady at the end of this week’s FOMC meeting as expected. While Powell left open the possibility of another hike, he made no
Monday Morning Notes, 10/29/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will leave rates unchanged at this next meeting. Recent Fedspeak has been more aggressive than necessary to
Monday Morning Notes, 10/23/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is on track to leave rates unchanged at the upcoming November FOMC meeting and anticipates leaving rates unchanged in
Fed Preparing For an Extended Pause Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech reinforced our expectations that the Fed expects it will again not hike rates at the December FOMC meeting.
Raising the Bar Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller cleverly raised the bar for another rate hike at the December FOMC meeting: I find myself thinking about two possible scenarios for
The Data is Telling the Fed to Hike, But Doves Resist That Message As we said yesterday, the data can guide the Fed to another rate hike in December, and
Monday Morning Notes, 10/16/23 We can easily see a totality of data emerge sufficient for the Fed to follow through with a rate hike at the December FOMC meeting. If
Tuesday Morning Notes, 10/10/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed remains on track to leave rates steady at the November FOMC meeting. Although September payrolls came in ahead
Another Tumultuous Day for Markets That was another unpleasant day on Wall Street, and although as the saying goes all trends that can’t go on forever will eventually end, I
It’s About Growth We expect Fed speakers will continue to reiterate the core message from the September SEP: faster growth means fewer rate cuts next year. We don’t think markets
