Minutes Pave the Way for Rate Cuts While the minutes of the December FOMC meeting did not greenlight a rate cut for the March meeting, they did open the door
Monday Morning Notes, 1/2/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning With inflation having collapsed in the second half of 2023, the Fed will begin cutting rates by March to
Monday Morning Notes, 12/18/23 Rather than our traditional Monday note, we are winding down the year with an explanation for the Fed’s pivot, and where it might lead, to ponder
The Fed Pivot The Fed will cut rates by March, meaning that there is a nontrivial possibility of a January cut. We predicated our pivot at the beginning of November
Quick Note on CPI Core CPI inflation came in as expected at 0.3% for November: There is less momentum here than it appears if we strip out shelter and used
Monday Morning Notes, 12/11/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning In the beginning of November we took an aggressive position is establishing a baseline scenario that the Fed would
Wait For It Eventually the reality of disinflation will come crashing down on the Fed. It’s just a matter of whether that happens before persistently tight monetary policy sets in
Monday Morning Notes, 11/27/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Although the Fed continues to hold out the risk of another rate hike, almost certainly the last hike for
Fed Minutes Offer Little New Guidance The minutes of the November FOMC minutes offered little in the way of any new insights into the policy path. While FOMC participants still
Monday Morning Notes, 11/20/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The market has started pricing in rate cuts beginning next March well ahead of any Fed movement toward easier
Monday Morning Notes, 11/13/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is not ready to declare that the rate hike cycle ended in July, but when that happens,
A Quick Note on Financial Conditions and Inflation With the 10-year treasury yield now back down from its highs of 5% to almost the level of the September FOMC meeting there has
Questions and Answers My Monday Morning Note prompted a flurry of client questions. Some of the prominent questions (paraphrased) and my responses: Will the Fed start talking about rate cuts
Monday Morning Notes, 11/6/23 With it increasingly clear that the Fed reached the peak of this cycle back in July, we can begin wargaming the first rate cut of the
Extended Pause Underway The Fed held rates steady at the end of this week’s FOMC meeting as expected. While Powell left open the possibility of another hike, he made no
Monday Morning Notes, 10/29/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will leave rates unchanged at this next meeting. Recent Fedspeak has been more aggressive than necessary to
Monday Morning Notes, 10/23/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is on track to leave rates unchanged at the upcoming November FOMC meeting and anticipates leaving rates unchanged in
Fed Preparing For an Extended Pause Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech reinforced our expectations that the Fed expects it will again not hike rates at the December FOMC meeting.
Raising the Bar Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller cleverly raised the bar for another rate hike at the December FOMC meeting: I find myself thinking about two possible scenarios for
