The Data is Telling the Fed to Hike, But Doves Resist That Message As we said yesterday, the data can guide the Fed to another rate hike in December, and

Monday Morning Notes, 10/16/23 We can easily see a totality of data emerge sufficient for the Fed to follow through with a rate hike at the December FOMC meeting. If

Tuesday Morning Notes, 10/10/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed remains on track to leave rates steady at the November FOMC meeting. Although September payrolls came in ahead

Another Tumultuous Day for Markets That was another unpleasant day on Wall Street, and although as the saying goes all trends that can’t go on forever will eventually end, I

It’s About Growth We expect Fed speakers will continue to reiterate the core message from the September SEP: faster growth means fewer rate cuts next year. We don’t think markets

Monday Morning Notes, 9/25/23 Shortened note this morning because I was in transit over the weekend returning from client meetings in London. The Fed is not ready to declare the

The Fed Comes to Us Motivated by stronger than expected growth, the Fed delivered a “hawkish pause” at yesterday’s FOMC meeting that left a clear runaway to another rate hike.

Monday Morning Notes, 9/18/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is on track to hold rates steady at this week’s FOMC meeting. A rate hike at this

Resist the Urge to Bet Against the Consumer Regular readers know that we have remained consistently optimistic on consumer spending and maintain our position that you should never bet against

Monday Morning Notes, 9/11/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We need to assess how the risks for the Oct/Nov FOMC meeting, currently priced in at a 50% chance

Tuesday Morning Notes, 9/5/23 Though on the surface the employment report was weak, in the context of both the quirkiness of August numbers and the reacceleration of growth in the

Waiting For a Catalyst Although we remain optimistic that strong growth will push the Fed into another rate hike at the Oct/Nov FOMC meeting, that meeting is still two months

Monday Morning Notes, 8/28/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Jackson Hole was largely uneventful with Chair Powell’s speech in line with our expectations but somewhat hawkish relative to

Battlelines Drawn Heading into Powell’s Speech A quick note on the dueling headlines going into Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech that give a nice glimpse at the debate

Fed at a Crucial Juncture Market participants have pushed rates to a point that creates a potentially crucial juncture for the Fed. The 10-year rate has breached cycle highs while

Monday Morning Notes, 8/21/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning This is Jackson Hole week with Fed Chair Jerome Powell stepping up to the plate on Friday although it’s

The Fed’s Forecast is at Odds with Reality The Fed is going to get run over by the Q3 growth numbers. That’s the real takeaway from the minutes of the

Monday Morning Notes, 8/14/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Despite what looks like still solid growth in Q3, low inflation keeps the Fed on track for holding rates steady

The Fed’s Near- Pivot The Fed’s narrative has shifted in a dovish direction. The discussion has shifted from “how high do rates need to rise?” to “how long should rates

Monday Morning Notes, 8/7/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The July employment report was open to different interpretations; essentially, it’s a “choose your own adventure.” Fed doves will