Monday Morning Notes, 6/23/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Last week’s FOMC meeting and subsequent press conference by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell left little doubt that the

Quick Follow Up The FOMC held policy rates steady as expected while issuing a fresh set of projections that revealed a sharp bifurcation of forecasts among FOMC participants. The real

Forecast Distributions and Recent Guidance Bottom Line: We expect the June SEP to reflect a more pronounced tariff shock with both the inflation and unemployment rate forecasts raised, and economic

Monday Morning Notes, 6/16/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will signal steady rate policy through the summer at this week’s FOMC meeting. We anticipate the SEP

The June SEP Today’s CPI number notwithstanding, we anticipate the June SEP will broadly follow the same contours as the March SEP though with more pronounced supply side effects due to

Monday Morning Notes, 6/9/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The May employment report revealed a sufficiently resilient labor market to confirm the Federal Reserve’s belief that it has time

Ahead of the May Employment Report The May employment report released tomorrow could help cement the Fed’s expectation that it stays on the sidelines throughout the summer. The Fed views the

Monday Morning Notes, 6/2/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Federal Reserve’s baseline view is that tariffs, and broader policy changes on net, will have a stagflationary impact

Monday Morning Notes, 5/19/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed remains in a holding pattern. The economy remains sufficiently strong that the Fed confidently believes it can

While the market narrative is shifting to the potential size of the fiscal package working its way through Congress, still higher-than-anticipated tariffs will continue to work their way through the

Monday Morning Notes, 5/12/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Policy remains in a holding pattern as the Fed manages risks to both sides of its mandate. We think

Steady as She Goes Today’s FOMC meeting ended exactly as we anticipated with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell effectively ending any residual hopes for a June rate cut. Barring a

Monday Morning Notes, 5/5/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning As the Federal Reserve heads into its May FOMC meeting this week the economic outlook remains mired in uncertainty.

Ahead of the April Employment Report The details of tomorrow’s employment report could in the Fed’s eye sharply reduce chances for a June rate cut. As we have laid out in previous reports,

Monday Morning Notes, 4/28/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning It’s blackout week for the Fed, leaving the market focus on data and trade policies. Timing the impact and

Monday Morning Notes, 4/21/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed expects to remain on hold until it has a clearer sense of which side of the mandate,

Quickly on Powell Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave no hope that a Fed “put” to support markets will come anytime soon. Here is the key paragraph in Powell’s speech: Our

Dovish Waller Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller maintained his out-of-consensus position in today’s speech. Waller was prescient on the upside of the pandemic inflation and then again on his labor market

Monday Morning Notes, 4/14/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning There is no easy summary this morning. The economic landscape remains complicated as President Donald Trump’s administration lurches between

Heading Into the Weekend When volatility is high, we find it important to maintain focus on the underlying forces. Some things to ponder over the weekend: It is critically important