Monday Morning Notes, 8/5/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Markets moved aggressively on weakening employment numbers on Friday. But they were just following an outlined reaction function. Neither the
Quick Update Markets have been volatile as traders unwind leveraged trades. At one point today, markets were pricing a 60% chance of an intermeeting rate cut by the Fed although
Fed Looks Behind the Curve The tide has turned against the Fed. With the Fed already poised to cut rates in September, a 50bp rate cut is pushing against an
Fed Sets Up September Cut The July FOMC meeting and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference fell in line with our expectations. While the statement did not directly hint at
Monday Morning Notes, 7/29/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Backed by softer inflation and a more balanced labor market, the Fed will move closer to a rate cut this
Questions and Answers We are getting many questions about the potential pace of rate cuts. This is not unexpected. Recall what we wrote almost two weeks ago (Tim Duy’s Fed Watch,
Why Not November? With market participants largely anticipating rate cuts in September and December, attention has turned to the November FOMC meeting. We think a November cut is a bet
Monday Morning Notes, 7/22/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Encouraged by softer inflation numbers and increasingly concerned by a still-softening labor market, Fed doves grow eager to cut
Data Delivering Support for the Doves I suspected that if I took a vacation the data would finally break in a more interesting direction. That is exactly what happened. (Despite
On Vacation I will be on vacation for the next two weeks with limited access to email. Market participants are stuck in a holding pattern with pricing for September remarkably
Monday Morning Notes, 7/1/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The debate between Fed hawks and doves continued this week as the latter intend to use expected softer inflation
Monday Morning Notes, 6/24/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Softer inflation data, assuming it continues, helps clear the way to a rate cut later this year. Multiple Fed
Fed Stays Hawkish Despite CPI Despite this morning’s surprisingly low inflation print, the FOMC meeting ended largely as we anticipated with our very out-of-consensus expectation that the median FOMC participant would
Monday Morning Notes, 6/10/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The employment report revealed that job growth rose faster than expected in May while the unemployment rate continued to
JOLTS Data Raises a Red Flag The JOLTS report revealed a drop in openings along with downward revisions for March leaving the openings rate at 4.8% in April compared to
Monday Morning Notes, 6/3/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed has settled into a space that it is likely to occupy throughout much of the summer. It
Monday Morning Notes, 5/27/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We are in something of a holding pattern at the moment. The Fed is waiting for fresh inflation data
Waller Kills July, Leaves September in Doubt Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller’s closely watched speech matched our expectations, but the contrast with his subsequent CNBC interview left market participants scratching
Monday Morning Notes, 5/20/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning April’s softer inflation data is a step in the right direction, but the Fed needs even softer numbers to
Monday Morning Notes, 5/13/24 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Blindsided by elevated inflation in the first quarter, the Fed has shifted back to “wait and see” mode and
