Monday Morning Notes, 2/28/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning As of the end of last week, Fed officials were still debating the size of the first rate hike
Fed Ready to Respond to Higher Inflation The minutes of the January FOMC meeting were light on details, reflective of the high degree of uncertainty among FOMC participants with respect
Monday Morning Notes, 02/14/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Last week’s inflation report was the latest number telling us that the Fed is behind the curve. As we
Deeply Behind the Curve The Fed is deeply behind the curve on inflation. There is no other story at this point. Our baseline outlook is the equivalent of seven 25bp
Thoughts Ahead of CPI Number The BLS releases the January CPI report tomorrow. Wall Street expects core-CPI inflation to be at 0.5%, consistent with the 0.45% prediction from the Cleveland
Monday Morning Notes, 02/07/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Assuming the hawkish data flow continues, market participants will likely continue to price in more rate hikes, including a
Data Will Drive Policy Outcomes The dominant theme from incoming Fed speak is that almost everything is on the table. The only thing that we know for sure is that
Monday Morning Notes, 01/31/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed needs to get rates closer to neutral to be prepared for ongoing inflation overshooting in the second
Hawkish Pivot Still Not Complete The Fed cleared the way for the March rate hike as expected. Also as expected, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the Fed’s new narrative
While We Wait for the Fed Clients frequently ask what I am watching for to see if the Fed’s inflation forecast will go sideways again. This is good topic to
Monday Morning Notes, 1/24/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning This week the Fed will take another step towards a March rate hike. Powell will stick to the Fed’s
Tuesday Morning Notes, 1/18/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning FOMC meeting participants have all reshaped their outlooks as needed to conform with the Fed’s narrative shifts. The stage
Monday Morning Notes, 1/10/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning There is nothing to stop the Fed from declaring the economy is at full employment at the January meeting
Inflation, Balance Sheet (Again!), Bullard CPI came in hot with core inflation up 0.6% compared to expectations of 0.5%. Annualized, core inflation was 6.8% in December and 5.5% over the
On Ending QE I want to extend my note from last night. As I said, there is no reason to continue asset purchases at this point. Continued quantitative easing is
Quick Balance Sheet Thoughts We are getting a lot of questions about the Fed’s plans for the balance sheet. Unfortunately, concrete information is hard to come by simply because FOMC
Monday Morning Notes, 1/10/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning There is nothing to stop the Fed from declaring the economy is at full employment at the January meeting
Some Items Ahead of the Employment Report Wall Street is looking for a gain of 440k jobs in the December employment report, released tomorrow. Bolstered by the strong 807k gain
Fed Minutes Lay Out March Hike and QT The minutes of the FOMC meeting confirmed the major themes we have discussed in detail in recent weeks. The Fed made a
Monday Morning Notes, 1/3/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed and market participants continue to manage the timing of the first rate hike of this cycle in
