Quick Balance Sheet Thoughts We are getting a lot of questions about the Fed’s plans for the balance sheet. Unfortunately, concrete information is hard to come by simply because FOMC
Monday Morning Notes, 1/10/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning There is nothing to stop the Fed from declaring the economy is at full employment at the January meeting
Some Items Ahead of the Employment Report Wall Street is looking for a gain of 440k jobs in the December employment report, released tomorrow. Bolstered by the strong 807k gain
Fed Minutes Lay Out March Hike and QT The minutes of the FOMC meeting confirmed the major themes we have discussed in detail in recent weeks. The Fed made a
Monday Morning Notes, 1/3/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed and market participants continue to manage the timing of the first rate hike of this cycle in
Final Omicron Thoughts Heading into the Holidays Many of us will be only lightly working until after the New Year, and the resulting thin markets often contribute to volatility during
Monday Morning Notes, 12/20/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is positioned to hike rates as early as March with Omicron as the only real stumbling block
Additional Thoughts on the Fed Pivot Last night at dinner I gave my daughter the choice of either reviewing the latest issue of Fine Woodworking magazine or working through the
The Fed Operationalizes its Hawkish Pivot The FOMC accelerated the pace of the taper and revealed a hawkish forecast for 2022 and beyond. The outcome of the meeting was largely
Last Minute Thoughts Heading into the FOMC Meeting We are now less than 24 hours away from the final FOMC meeting of 2021, one that is expected to “operationalize” Chair
Monday Morning Notes, 12/13/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The FOMC is meeting for the first time since Chair Jerome Powell publicly pivoted the Fed in a hawkish
On The Dots You ask, I answer, now with some quick thoughts on next week’s dot plot. The theme for the week is my expectation of a high probability that
Why March? Last night I wrote that we thought there was a high probability the first rate hike will come at the March FOMC meeting. Some clients have asked for
Monday Morning Notes, 12/6/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed pivot to reducing accommodation more aggressively is underway, beginning with an accelerated pace of tapering next week.
Powell Seals the Deal Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell sounded an unmitigatedly hawkish note in today’s appearance on Capitol Hill. His remarks were consistent with my interpretation of the written
Quick Note on Powell After the market close today the Fed released Chair Jerome Powell’s written testimony for his Tuesday trip to Capitol Hill. I think it leans hawkish. First,
Monday Morning Notes, 11/29/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Omicron variant roiled markets last week but we have only much speculation and few hard facts. The Fed
Powell For Chair, Brainard for Vice Chair President Biden ended the suspense today by announcing the renomination of Jerome Powell for Chair and the nomination of Lael Brainard for Vice
Note: The most significant data last week was the retail sales report, which I covered in my 11/16 note. This is a holiday-shortened week, with Wednesday being the big data
Williams, Evans, Fed Chair A couple of things of note today. First, Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said rate hikes: “could begin next year after we finish our asset-purchasing
