CPI, Fed Personnel CPI came in on the upside, rising 0.9% for the month (11.9% annualized). Core came in at 0.6% compared to expectations of 0.4%: Increasingly this is not

Chair Nomination, Fed Speakers Bloomberg broke a story overnight that Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard was still in the running for the Fed, including this bit: But the White House

Monday Morning Notes, 11/8/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is attempting to lock down the near-term policy path by planning to end asset purchases ahead of

Fed Stays the Course The November FOMC meeting concluded as we expected. The Fed began tapering asset purchases at a rate that will bring the program to an end in

Monday Morning Notes, 11/1/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Despite pressure from markets looking for a hawkish pivot, the Fed will likely stay the course this week and

Pre-Meeting Notes A couple of thoughts as we head into this FOMC meeting. First, a reader asked if the Fed really needed to abandon the new framework to turn hawkish?

Monday Morning Notes, 11/1/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Despite pressure from markets looking for a hawkish pivot, the Fed will likely stay the course this week and

Odds and Ends: Bank of Canada, Fed Appointments, Inflation, Yield Curve Some things I am thinking about this week while the Fed is in the blackout period: The Bank of

Monday Morning Notes, 10/25/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The outcome of the upcoming FOMC meeting has been very well telegraphed by Fed speakers including Federal Reserve Chair

Getting Nervous, But Still Committed to Transitory Federal Reserve Board speakers have coalesced around common themes over the past two weeks. In general, they support tapering at the upcoming November

If Demand Is the Issue, The Fed Is on The Wrong Side of The Bet The Fed attributes the current inflationary pressures to supply side constraints driven by sectoral imbalances

Monday Morning Notes, 10/18/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Data is generally cutting in the direction of Fed hawks, but the FOMC still keeps the throttle wide open

CPI, Fed Minutes September core-CPI printed at 0.2% for the month, although at 0.24% it was just a hair away from being rounded up to 0.3%. Annualized core inflation ran

Clarida, Bostic, Inflation Expectations, and JOLTS Mixed opinions today from Fed speakers on the inflationary challenges suggests a low bar to a further expansion in the rift between Fed presidents

When Will the Fed Cut Loose from Its Anchors? Note: I am foregoing the usual Monday morning format in favor of some “big picture” thinking in the wake of the

Random Thoughts While Waiting for the Employment Report A few items while we wait for the employment report. First, the White House is dragging its heels on Fed personnel decisions

Chair Nomination Battle Intensifies The slow process of the Fed chair nominations will only lead to growing speculation that current chair Jerome Powell is losing ground in a horse race

Monday Morning Notes, 10/4/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Over the next six months, the Fed will be developing the narrative that provides the post-tapering guidance. A key

Fed Presidents Resign, Brainard Speech, Energy Prices Federal Reserve Presidents Eric Rosengren and Robert Kaplan resigned Monday in the wake of an ethics controversy regarding their trading activity during the

Monday Morning Notes, 9/27/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed almost pre-announced it will start tapering asset purchases at the November FOMC meeting. The Fed’s use of inflation