Monday Morning Notes, 7/10/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning With a July rate hike already priced in, the focus of market participants will be on what happens next.
Data Dump Deals a Death Blow to the Imminent Recession Hypothesis The recession will have to wait. The ADP report came in red hot at 497k compared to expectations of
FOMC Minutes Leave the Policy Outlook Unchanged The minutes of the June FOMC meeting were thin, thin gruel that added little to our policy outlook. The underlying tone of the
Monday Morning Notes, 7/3/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We have been pushing clients to be aware that market pricing is vulnerable to stronger than expected data. That
Monday Morning Notes, 6/26/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We anticipate the Fed will raise rates again at the July FOMC meeting and think it likely that either
Tuesday Morning Notes, 6/20/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Don’t dismiss the dots. Neither the economy nor inflation are slowing quickly enough to keep the Fed from further
More of a Skip Than a Pause The FOMC passed on the opportunity to raise rates today, as expected, and issued a hawkish set of projections with a terminal rate
CPI Report Supports Fed Skip The CPI report doesn’t have enough juice to keep the Fed from holding policy rates steady when it’s two-day FOMC meeting concludes tomorrow. It’s sufficient,
Monday Monday Morning Notes, 6/12/23 The Federal Reserve is poised to hold policy rates steady this week and bill the move as a “skip not a pause.” The Fed “troika”
Monday Morning Notes, 6/5/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Having successfully reined in market odds of a rate hike, Fed leadership has positioned itself to take a pass
Jefferson Raises the Bar for a Rate Hike Incoming Vice Chair Phillip Jefferson delivered a clear message in favor of skipping the June meeting in his Wednesday remarks. As a
Tuesday Morning Notes, 5/30/23 A divided Fed is sleepwalking into another rate hike at the June FOMC meeting. Fed leadership has directed us to expect the FOMC will stand pat at
Threading the Needle Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller threaded the needle exactly as I suspected by revealing that while he prefers to hike, he could support a skip, but not
Monday Morning Notes, 5/22/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell greenlit a pause at the June FOMC meeting. In theory, the hawks could still
A Divided Fed At the March FOMC meeting, seven of the participants believed that policy rates would need to rise above the median projected terminal rate of 5.125%. Those seven
Challenging Fedspeak We are getting a lot of questions about hawkish sounding comments from Fed officials in recent days. With that in mind, I want to think about the state
Monday Morning Notes, 5/15/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will likely hold rates steady at the June meeting as it weighs the impact of banking stress
April CPI, Williams Speech On the surface, the April CPI report did not appear amenable to a pause at the June FOMC meeting. Core inflation grew at a slightly faster
Monday Morning Notes, 5/8/23 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Although the outcome of the June Fed meeting is technically still data dependent, banking stress and a potential debt
Fed Intends to Remain Resolute The Fed does not intend to cut rates. I think my post-FOMC note accurately describes the inflation-focused intentions of the Fed in the context of
