Monday Morning Notes, 1/12/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The labor market continues to cool, but not break, as the curious equilibrium of weak job growth but low
Productivity and the Jobless Expansion The Federal Reserve is struggling to reconcile two views of the US economy. From a top-down perspective growth remains solid and consumer spending resilient, suggesting
Monday Morning Notes, 1/5/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning With policy rates now within the upper end of estimates of neutral, the Fed looks set to hold rates
Monday Morning Notes, 12/22/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning With the December rate cut, the Fed has positioned itself to move to the sidelines and wait for additional
Quick Data Update The combined employment data for October and November indicate that the labor market continues to hold steady in the slow hire/low fire equilibrium. There isn’t anything here
Monday Morning Notes, 12/15/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed hawks and doves have reached an uneasy détente after a divisive series of meetings in the final months
Monday Morning Notes, 12/8/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will cut rates this week and signal a higher bar to further cuts, with the implication that
December 2025 SEP Projections The Fed is expected to deliver a hawkish cut next week though it strikes us as challenging to make any credible commitment to not cut again
Monday Morning Notes, 12/1/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The December FOMC meeting no longer appears “live,” with a rate cut by now largely priced in by market
Monday Morning Notes, 11/24/25 It looks like the Fed will let market participants go into blackout without near certainty of the December outcome because the situation remains very fluid. Still,
Short Note on Williams Note I am still on vacation. New York Fed President John Williams’ description of supporting a cut in the “near term” is sufficiently vague to describe
Holding Our Odds Steady We retain our 80% odds that the Fed does not cut rates at the December FOMC meeting. We don’t think the Fed will see the uptick
Very Short Fed Note Quick update as I am on vacation. The Fed remains positioned to hold rates steady in December. A consensus September employment report would seal the deal, though
Monday Morning Notes, 11/17/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning We think the Fed is poised to leave the policy rate unchanged at the December FOMC meeting, and if
The Centrists Speak Out The outcome of the upcoming December FOMC meeting is now set to be a clash between the hawks and the doves on the committee, but the
“Modestly” Versus “Somewhat” Note: Tonight, Fed Governor Michael Barr is speaking. The topic, “AI and Innovation,” does not lend itself naturally to the near-term rate path. Still, Barr’s October 9
Monday Morning Notes, 11/10/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning A growing number of Fed officials, including Board members, are building a narrative with four basic parts to support
Monday Morning Notes, 11/3/25 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has navigated a path of increasingly difficult compromises as he manages a politicized Fed. It remains to be seen what rabbit
Course Correction We detect widespread resistance to flipping December calls to no cut, ourselves included. We think, however, that’s the direction this is heading. Despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s
