So Many Moving Pieces One of the most difficult aspects of this drama has been to keep in focus what we wrote on Monday: Over the weekend, however, the Trump administration

Quick on the Fed We have received multiple questions about the Fed and QE this morning as credit markets come under pressure. We remind readers what we wrote on Monday:

Quick Follow Up Clients have been asking about our hawkish take on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech last Friday, largely in disbelief that Powell would make such a hawkish

Monday Morning Notes, 4/7/25 This is a “Tariff Turmoil” edition given that the data has fallen by the wayside for the time being.  While it’s hard to hear on a

Holding Our Fed Call Steady We have not changed our Fed call in the wake of the latest tariff announcements. Given what we have on the table now in data and

First Thoughts on Tariffs Trump’s latest round of tariffs deepens the challenge facing the Fed. Even if ultimately some reciprocal tariffs are negotiated down, we expect the tariff baseline of

A Contrarian Take on the Labor Market Incoming ISM and JOLTS data point to slowing labor demand. Still unanswered, however, is the impact of Trump’s immigration policies on labor supply.

Monday Morning Notes, 3/24/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed and financial market participants continue to wait for data that would clear the way for rate cuts.

No Cut Imminent, But Fed Has Dovish Take on Tariffs The March FOMC meeting ended with no change in either the policy rate or the expected path of rates. The outcomes

Monday Morning Notes, 3/17/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will hold rates steady this week as it balances risks to both sides of its mandate. We

Monday Morning Notes, 3/10/25 Despite a calm exterior, FOMC participants grow increasingly anxious about the rising risks to both sides of the mandate and the institution’s ability to resist pressure

Bits and Pieces We have been busy with client meetings this week. Below are some of the topics we have been discussing: Tariffs and SEP forecasts. FOMC participants did not fully

Powell’s Test Given our position that Trump’s policy agenda is much more likely to trigger Fed rate cuts than rate hikes, we can hardly recommend that market participants attempt to

Monday Morning Notes, 3/3/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning This week will set the tone going into the Fed’s blackout period ahead of the March FOMC meeting. Fed

Fed Will Wait for Hard Data Another round of soft data, this time from the Conference Board, encouraged market participants to price in additional easing this year, including a 30%

Quick Data Note While we caution that regional Fed PMI surveys are soft data, the February Dallas Fed manufacturing PMI exemplifies the growing uncertainty to both sides of the distribution

Monday Morning Notes, 2/24/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning For the Fed, risks are growing to both sides of the distribution. On one side, Trump-driven uncertainty is beginning

Tuesday Morning Notes, 2/18/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning As we have expected since the beginning of the year, the Fed is positioning for an extended pause. FOMC

Quick Note on CPI There’s some risk to commenting on inflation ahead of the PPI numbers, but the January CPI release supports our view that the Fed will become more

Monday Morning Notes, 2/10/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed speakers have coalesced around a near-term hawkish narrative. With rates now down 100bp from their cycle peak, the