Monday Morning Notes, 11/27/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is poised to hike rates 50bp at the upcoming FOMC meeting. The Fed will hike rates at
Waller, Retail Sales Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller provided further guidance that both pointed to a step down to 50bp at the December FOMC meeting while emphasizing that the Fed
Monday Morning Notes, 11/21/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed plans to raise its policy rate to a level that is sufficiently restrictive to restrain the demand
Monday Morning Notes, 11/14/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The October CPI report reinforced our caution last week about pushing the expected terminal rate for the Fed’s tightening
Monday Morning Notes, 11/7/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is heading toward a 50bp rate hike in December, and we think odds favor pushing through another
Further Increases in the Terminal Policy Rate Ahead Today’s FOMC meeting validated our baseline outlook that the Fed expects to downshift to 50bp at the December meeting, that at that
Final Thoughts Heading into the November FOMC Meeting On the JOLTS report, openings unexpectedly rose in September. This isn’t what the Fed is looking for, but that said this is
Monday Morning Notes, 10/31/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will follow through with another jumbo-sized rate hike this week but will signal a high likelihood that
Monday Morning Notes, 10/24/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is poised to raise rates 75bp next week and further rate increases are expected at upcoming meetings.
Evolving the Narrative Increasingly it appears the current SEP-implied terminal rate is not just a near-term target, but also some Fed speakers are hopeful that the Fed can hold at
Monday Morning Notes, 10/17/22 In the interests of succinctness, I am foregoing the usual format this week given that I already covered last week’s big data release, the CPI report.
CPI Again Not Helping the Fed Another terrible CPI report locks in a minimum of 125bp of rate hikes for the rest of the year, raises the odds of 150bp,
FOMC Minutes Tell a Familiar Story A key theme we have pushed is that the SEP-implied terminal rate contains a potentially dovish message within the overall hawkish outlook that drove
Monday Morning Notes, 10/10/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The employment report helps lock down another 75bp hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting. The most likely path over
Clarification on Excess Savings Some of you have pointed out an inconsistency between my and others’ estimates of excess savings. The difference is in the methodology. When I first estimated
Monday Morning Notes, 10/3/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Fed speakers held to the hawkish message of the July FOMC meeting despite the escalation of financial market volatility
Monday Morning Notes, 9/26/22 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed delivered an unmitigatedly hawkish message last week and financial market participants heard that message loud and clear.
On the Way to 5% The FOMC meeting concluded with a hawkish message that foreshadows another 75bp at the November meeting. More rate hikes will follow; the outcome of this
Asked and Answered Final thoughts heading in the FOMC meeting, in Q&A format. Why not just pull the trigger on a 100bp rate hike? Great question, if you know you
