Tim Duy’s Fed Watch, 4/26/21 Monday Morning Notes, 4/26/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The economy heated up during the first quarter but the Fed will remain on
Labor Markets Tighter Than Fed Thinks The labor market is heating up fast and we should be cautious that the labor market recovery challenges the Fed’s baseline expectation of a
Monday Morning Notes, 4/19/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The economy heated up in March as expected. Still, the Fed isn’t going to count its chickens before they
Quick Note on Vaccinations and Tapering On Monday, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said that it was too early to assess the stance of monetary policy. It wouldn’t
Monday Morning Notes, 4/12/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Expect a seemingly never-ending stream of concern about supply constraints and inflation as the economy reopens but the Fed
How Many Is A “String”? In his Thursday appearance at the IMF Spring Meetings, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said this with regards to the March employment “We want to
Tight Labor Markets Ahead The February JOLTS report revealed a better than anticipated rise in job openings to 7.4 million, up from 7.1 million in January: Openings are fairly high
Monday Morning Notes, 3/29/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The dominant message from the Fed is that rates will remain near zero for a long time and accommodative
Thinking About The Employment Report We are gearing up for Friday’s employment report. Wall Street currently expects nonfarm payrolls grew by 650k, the first of what is anticipated to be
April Kicks Off with a Strong ISM Report Expectations are high that the data flow will improve as we transition out of the weather-induced weakness in February. The ISM report
If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The economy is picking up speed and will be cruising along at a rapid pace through the summer. The Fed expects to patiently
Brainard, Powell, and the Importance of Sticky Inflation Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard’s latest speech is another dovish tour de force that again highlights the Fed’s intention to delay tighter
Monday Morning Notes, 3/22/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning A deluge of Fed speakers this week will reiterate Powell’s message from last week’s FOMC press conference: The Fed
Monday Morning Notes, 3/15/21 FOMC Preview The FOMC meeting and subsequent press conference is the highlight of this week and worthy of a deep dive in lieu of my usual
Tim Duy’s Fed Watch, 3/10/21 Thinking About Inflation The consumer price index for February provided no reason to think inflation is poised to take off. Core inflation rose just 0.1%
If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed stands ready to respond to a financial accident but it isn’t seeing such an accident yet. The Fed instead sticks to
Thinking About The Fed’s New Framework Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stuck to the script today, providing no hints that the Fed was about to change policy at the upcoming
Monday Morning Notes, 3/1/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning With pricing for rate hikes edging into 2022, market participants are front-running the Fed. The Fed will remind us
Fed Still Letting This Play Out Fed speakers continue to indicate they expect to sit on the sidelines while the bond market processes the implications of stronger economic growth this
