Quick Notes, 7/19/21 A few quick notes on incoming news and events: Homebuilding confidence edges down. Homebuilder confidence edged down in July: The associated commentary is important: “Builders are contending
The Politics of Inflation Note: I am foregoing the regular Monday format this week in lieu of a focus on the Fed section. It’s a light data week ahead (the
Quick Notes on Powell As anticipated, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell leaned into a dovish story in today’s testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. The major takeaway is that
Monday Morning Notes, 7/12/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Incoming data is expected to show that inflation remains elevated yet still easing down from the rapid pace of
Williams, Barkin Talk Tapering Fed officials continue to debate the timing and composition of tapering. The diversity of opinions suggests that it may be difficult to reach a consensus to
Inflation Surprises on the Upside Again Inflation surprised on the upside again, driven in part by another large gain in used car prices. There will continue to be a concerted
Dissension in the Ranks The FOMC minutes revealed that the Fed continues to travel down the tapering road but there is a wide and growing gulf between FOMC participants about
Tuesday Morning Notes, 7/6/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The June jobs report doesn’t change policy expectations. The economy remains sufficiently far from full employment that rate hikes
Ahead of the June Employment Report I feel like anyone giving predictions about Friday’s employment report is pretty much just walking on thin ice. Even in the best of times forecasting
Waller Favors Tapering MBS First The momentum for tapering asset purchases is clearly building. Yesterday in a Bloomberg interview, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller noted that the economy has done better than
Inflation Thoughts Inflation continues to be a hot topic as policymakers and market participants navigate the uncharted waters of the U.S. economic reopening. I will be talking inflation on Wednesday
Monday Morning Notes, 6/28/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The tapering train is rolling forward and it is all about how quickly the Fed can form a consensus
Fed’s New Framework Still Holds I am traveling this weekend and had intended to postpone my usual Monday note, but the Fed’s hawkish turn last week raised several questions about
The Fed Takes a Hawkish Turn The Fed has a familiar pattern. In the face of data and events that are inconsistent with its expectations, it tends to shift into
Bits and Pieces to Chew on While Waiting for the Fed Some things I am thinking about while waiting for the Fed: 1.) Split expectations on the dots. Bloomberg reports
FOMC Preview I covered incoming data last week (for the CPI and JOLTS reports, see Tim Duy’s Fed Watch 6/10/21 and 6/8/21, respectively) and am foregoing the usual Monday morning
Inflation With Another Upside Surprise CPI inflation came in hot in May with headline and core climbing 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively. At this point, there is no indication that the
JOLTS Surprises on the Upside The JOLTS report revealed the intensity of the frictions facing the U.S. labor market. The Fed has been downplaying these frictions on the assumption they
Monday Morning Notes, 6/7/21 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The tapering train will continue to roll forward as a hot economy combines with elevated inflation to push the
Ahead of the Employment Report ADP surprised on the upside with a 978k gain relative to expectations of 650k, suggesting that hiring is stronger than indicated by the April jobs
