Monday Morning Notes, 11/3/25 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has navigated a path of increasingly difficult compromises as he manages a politicized Fed. It remains to be seen what rabbit
Course Correction We detect widespread resistance to flipping December calls to no cut, ourselves included. We think, however, that’s the direction this is heading. Despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s
Did Powell Tip His Hand? Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell wrangled his colleagues into another rate cut this week, but can he do it again in December? We think he
Final Thoughts Heading Into Fed Day We have been working with many clients over the last two days in preparation for this week’s FOMC meeting and thought it appropriate to
Monday Morning Notes, 10/27/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will cut policy rates another 25bp at this week’s FOMC meeting and will most likely follow up with
Reassessing the Stars The next few months’ data could reveal a good deal about the economic crosscurrents, and potentially how much of the recent labor market weakness is cyclical versus potentially
Monday Morning Notes, 10/20/25 We shortened this week’s note again given the lack of new official data with also included comments on recent visits with New York clients. The Fed
Tuesday Morning Note, 10/14/25 We shortened this week’s note given the lack of new official data and the US holiday-shortened week for the Treasury market. The Fed remains on track to
Monday Morning Notes, 10/6/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed is on track to cut rates at the October and December FOMC meetings. If the job market
The Shutdown Begins The Federal Reserve restarted rate cuts in September and projected 75bp of easing this year in that month’s SEP. We expect the Fed follows through on the
Monday Morning Notes, 9/29/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning It’s “wait and see” time for market participants. We think the Fed, or most importantly, the Board, has largely made
Monday Morning Notes, 9/22/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning A divided Fed cut interest rates last week and signaled another two cuts for the remainder of 2025. We
On Track for Two More Rate Cuts This Year A divided Fed cut policy rates 25bps as expected and signaled more will come this year. Although a wide swath of
Monday Morning Notes, 9/15/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will cut interest rates 25bps this week and signal at least one more rate cut for 2025.
Job Growth, ADP, and the Benchmark Revisions The slowdown in job growth has market participants and the Federal Reserve focused on downside labor market risks. With much of the topline US
Upcoming BLS Benchmark Revision Federal Reserve officials are increasingly embracing the view that downside risks to the labor market are building, reinforcing the case for interest rate cuts to stabilize
Monday Morning Notes, 9/8/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Growing downside risks to the labor market as highlighted in the August employment report will likely trigger a series
Tuesday Morning Notes, 9/2/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Federal Reserve is set to deliver a 25bp rate cut at the September FOMC meeting. By putting his
Slower Immigration Lowers Breakeven Job Growth Summary Federal Reserve and Breakevens Federal Reserve officials have cautioned that due to slowing immigration the recent softness in nonfarm payrolls should be taken
Monday Morning Notes, 8/25/25 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning At last week’s Jackson Hole conference Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave the green light for a rate cut
