Monday Morning Notes, 3/2/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The US and Israel dominated the news over the weekend as they launched an attack on Iran, killing key

AI, Warsh, and the Search for Neutral Key Points Discussion and Analysis The Federal Reserve is wrestling with how AI and higher productivity more broadly could affect the economic and

Labor Market Update: Openings, AI, and Wage Growth While market participants focus on the potential impact of AI on white-collar jobs, AI-impacted job openings appear to be firming as well

Monday Morning Notes, 2/23/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will hold rates steady at the March and April FOMC meetings. At this juncture we see less

FOMC Participants on a Collision Course with Warsh? Market participants largely shrugged off the hawkish implications of the January FOMC meeting minutes, rightly so as it had limited near-term implications.

Monday Morning Notes, 2/16/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning While December CPI inflation did not surprise on the upside, the passthrough to PCE inflation, the Fed’s official target,

January Employment Keeps the Fed on the Sideline If – and it’s still a big “if” – the January employment report is a sign of things to come for 2026,

Economy Looks Softer than GDP Indicates Today’s data releases point to a labor market that continues to cool while consumer demand ended the year on a weak note. Combined with last

Monday Morning Notes, 2/9/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Market participants remain stuck in a space where it’s difficult to have conviction on anything other than the broad

Fed Research Anticipates the New Chair We see a recent trend in Fed research explaining balance sheet issues. Perhaps this is just a coincidence as two of the notes predate

Monday Morning Notes, 2/2/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning President Donald Trump nominated former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Chair of the Fed. We

Fed Moves to the Sideline Faced with a backdrop of solid economic growth, apparent stabilization in the labor market, and still elevated inflation, the Fed held rates steady today as

Note on the Dollar and Confidence President Donald Trump added momentum to the decline of the dollar. The dollar had already been breaking lower again today even before Trump said he

On Fed Personnel Trump may announce his new Fed Chair choice as early as this week. Stephen Miran’s term as Fed Governor ends this week, which makes this a natural time

“Soft intervention” on the part of the US to strengthen the Japanese yen has sparked a fresh round of dollar weakness. If that weakness gains speed, the “debasement trade” narrative will

Monday Morning Notes, 1/26/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning The Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this week. The December SEP revealed that FOMC participants remain biased in

Labor Market Update, January 2026 The Federal Reserve continues to expect labor market stabilization in the near term, supported by solid economic growth, the lagged effects of last year’s rate

Small Bites on the Race for the Fed Chair  A couple of small points on the never-ending race to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell.  First, President Trump alluded to the

Monday Morning Notes, 1/20/26 If You Don’t Have Time This Morning Once again, market participants face navigating a Trump-induced international crisis. President Donald Trump threatened 10% tariffs on a subset

The Cartoon Fed Scenario The Federal Reserve and its Chair Jerome Powell remain under immense political pressure. President Donald Trump has renewed personal attacks and calls for rate cuts, the